BLOGS Voices Follow

15 Feb 2012

Mortality-Risk Calculators for AMI and Heart Failure Patients

Two mortality-risk calculators ­– one for patients with acute MI and another for those with heart failure – are now available for free at The calculators are based on risk models produced by our research group at Yale for the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). The models are derived from Medicare administrative-claims data for AMI and heart failure that the CMS reports publicly on its Hospital Compare website.

Because the models were designed to predict 30-day mortality as strongly as possible, they have more variables than we might have used in a leaner model designed for rapid clinical use. Nevertheless, the calculator can be populated with information that is easily available on admission. In about 2 minutes, you can enter data on a patient and get an estimate for his or her 30-day mortality risk.

The Center for Outcomes Research and Evaluation at Yale-New Haven Hospital has made the calculators available for free to all comers. There are no advertisements. All of the underlying data have been published in peer-reviewed articles that describe the development and validation of the publicly reported measures (see references below). We have put all of the information in the public domain.

Let us know if you find the calculators useful. And also take a look at our previous calculator on readmission risk.


Circulation 2006 Apr 14; 113:1683.

Circulation 2006 Apr 14; 113:1693.